Goldman Sachs Initiates Waste Management at Buy, Sets $256 Price Target

Goldman Sachs initiated coverage on Waste Management (NYSE: WM) with a Buy rating and a $256 price target.

Analysts said they were constructive on the company’s organic growth outlook, forecasting a 7.7% EBITDA CAGR from 2025 to 2027 driven by strong price/cost execution, high-return recycling and landfill-gas investments, and continued synergy capture from the Stericycle acquisition. Goldman noted potential upside tied to improving volumes in Healthcare Solutions (Stericycle) and a recovery in recycled commodity pricing.

The firm highlighted Waste Management’s dominant competitive position, estimating that the company held 51% market share within a 50-mile radius of its local landfill operations — the highest among major public peers. Despite recent concerns about Stericycle integration, Goldman said the stock had been disproportionately penalized, underperforming RSG, GFL and WCN by 20% since the acquisition, even though Stericycle represented only about 6% of EBITDA.

Goldman added that WM trades at a 10% valuation discount to peers despite expectations for faster organic EBITDA growth, reduced commodity volatility, and comparable free-cash-flow conversion.