TD Cowen Cuts McDonald’s Price Target to $320, Notes Sluggish Traffic Despite Value Push

TD Cowen lowered its price target on McDonald’s Corp. (NYSE: MCD) to $320 from $330 while maintaining a Hold rating, following weaker-than-expected third-quarter traffic trends in the U.S. market.

The firm said it had reduced its U.S. same-store sales forecast for the third quarter to 2% from 3%, below the Consensus Metrix estimate of 2.6%. Checks indicated limited improvement in traffic following the relaunch of Extra Value Meals on September 8, which may have been offset by slowing sales of snack wraps introduced in July.

Despite McDonald’s renewed focus on value offerings, proprietary survey data showed that low-income consumers’ perception of the brand’s value had weakened since July 2025. TD Cowen said this likely contributed to the softer-than-expected performance.

The firm now applied a 23x forward P/E multiple—down from 24x previously—to derive its new price target, which is in line with the three-year average and one turn below the five-year average. Analysts said the stock would likely remain range-bound between $290 and $320 per share, or 21x–24x FY2 earnings, until U.S. traffic trends show more sustainable improvement.