Hey forum folks! If you’re into politics, economics, and how they mess with the stock market, let’s talk about the recent NVDA and AMD 15% revenue share deal with the US on China chip sales—and what it means for your investments in semiconductor stocks and AI stocks.

These kinds of trade policies can shake up Wall Street, especially for tech giants like Nvidia and AMD. I want your thoughts, so stick around and join the chat!

What Is This 15% Revenue Share Deal?

The 15% revenue share deal is a new agreement between Nvidia (NVDA), AMD, and the US government, where the companies must pay 15% of their revenues from AI chip sales to China directly to the US Treasury. This was announced in August 2025 as part of securing export licenses for advanced chips amid ongoing US-China trade tensions. It's essentially a revenue "tax" tied to export approvals, allowing the firms to access the massive Chinese market but at a cost.

For example, Nvidia's H20 AI chips and AMD's equivalents are covered, with the goal of funding US tech initiatives while curbing China's AI advancements.

How It Hits AMD and NVDA Stocks

This deal can cause some serious swings in NVDA and AMD stock prices, as well as broader semiconductor stocks.

Here’s why:

Profit Margins Squeeze: Acting like a 15% tax on China sales, it could cut gross margins on those chips by 5-15 percentage points, potentially shaving about 1% off overall company margins. China accounts for a significant portion of their AI revenue—up to 20% for Nvidia pre-restrictions—so this directly eats into profits and earnings per share.

Market Access Trade-Off: On the flip side, it opens doors to restricted sales, which could boost volume and revenue long-term, offsetting some losses if demand stays high.

Stock Volatility and Investor Sentiment: News like this often triggers short-term dips in stock prices due to uncertainty—think reduced investor confidence in tech stocks amid trade wars. Broader effects could ripple to AI investing and the Nasdaq, as higher costs might slow innovation or shift focus to domestic markets.

History backs this up.

Past US-China trade spats have hammered chip stocks: During the 2018-2019 tariffs, NVDA dropped over 50% at one point, while AMD fell around 30%. The 2022 export bans caused NVDA to lose billions in potential sales, with a quick 10% stock dip. Markets usually recover, but it’s a wild ride for investing in tech stocks!Below is a table of historical US-China trade events and their impact on NVDA and AMD stocks:

What’s Happening Now?

As of August 2025, the deal was just confirmed by President Trump, sparking debates on its legality and long-term effects. NVDA and AMD stocks saw initial volatility, with potential for more if China retaliates or legal challenges arise. It's boosting US funds but raising costs for these firms, affecting everything from earnings reports to stock market news on AI and semiconductor stocks.

Watch for Q3 reports—analysts predict a hit to profits but possible revenue gains from unlocked sales.

How to Protect Your Money

Don’t panic—here’s how to play it smart when investing in tech stocks: Spread Your Bets: Diversify into non-tech sectors like healthcare or consumer staples to buffer against semiconductor stock dips.

Stay Calm, Think Long-Term: Trade policies change, and markets recover; focus on fundamentals like NVDA's AI dominance rather than short-term news.

Pick Resilient Plays: Consider US-focused chip firms or ETFs that hedge against China risks for safer stock market investing.

Join the Conversation!

What do you think about this 15% revenue share deal? Are you worried about its impact on NVDA and AMD stocks, or do you see it as a win for US economics? Got any tips for navigating trade wars in your portfolio?

Drop a comment below and share your take—whether it’s a strategy, a story, or a question. Let’s get this forum buzzing with ideas! And if you love digging into how politics and economics move markets, share this with friends and bring them into the debate. What’s your next move when trade gets tense? Tell us below!